Futures Board — 2026 Season Win Totals
How many games will each team win this season? Sportsbooks post a number. We simulated every schedule and got our own. This board puts them side by side.
- Market — the sportsbook's prediction of how many games this team wins this season. You bet whether the real number ends up higher (over) or lower (under).
- Book — which sportsbook is posting that number (DK = DraftKings; consensus = the average across major books).
- Our number — the wins our model expects after simulating the team's entire schedule, game by game.
- Gap — the difference between the two. Green +2.5 = our model sees ~2.5 more wins than the market; red = fewer. Big gaps are the rows worth your attention.
- Lean — the side of the market total our number points to (OVER or UNDER), with the price the book is charging for it.
How these numbers are made
NFL: each team's prior-season point-margin rating (ridge-adjusted for opponent and home field), regressed to the mean by a coefficient fit on 16 years of season pairs, then run through the 2026 schedule game by game. League projections sum to exactly 272 wins — the number that mathematically exists.
College: prior-year ratings blended with SP+ via a regression fit on a decade of season pairs, simulated across all 136 FBS schedules (conference championship games excluded, the same way books grade).
Why projections and not picks? Because we hold futures to the same standard as everything else on this site: a bet call has to earn its way through validation before we'll sell it. Win totals haven't cleared that bar yet — the strongest pocket is being forward-tested this season. Also worth knowing: books cap win-total bets at low limits (hundreds, not thousands), so size accordingly if you use these numbers.