The Dr. TrueLine Method

We don't predict winners.
We predict value.

Most betting sites tell you who to pick. We tell you where the book got the price wrong. That gap is your edge.

01
⚙️
We Calculate the True Line

Our proprietary model ingests real data — team strength, pace, efficiency, pitching, rest, travel, and more — and calculates its own independent line for every game. Built entirely separate from what the sportsbook is posting.

02
⚖️
We Compare It to Vegas

When our line and the book's line disagree significantly, that gap represents a pricing error by the sportsbook. We quantify the gap and calculate the expected value.

03
🎯
We Surface the Best Plays

Every game is tiered by conviction. Our strongest picks are flagged clearly. We also show you when we disagree with who Vegas favors — and when the book has it right and there's nothing to bet.

How We Filter MLB Picks

Simple rules.
Backed by data.

Not every edge is worth betting. Our data across hundreds of games shows that home picks convert smaller edges into profit, while away picks need a larger edge to overcome the extra variance. Two thresholds. That's the entire filter.

✔ Home Picks: Lower Threshold

Home teams benefit from familiar surroundings — the model's projection is more reliable, so a smaller edge is enough to be profitable.

✔ Away Picks: Higher Threshold

Away games carry more variance — travel fatigue, unfamiliar parks, hostile crowds. The model needs a bigger edge before the signal overcomes the noise.

✕ Everything Else: No Play

Picks that don't meet these thresholds are filtered out. Our data shows they lose money collectively — removing them nearly doubled our ROI.

Read the full filter breakdown →
MLB Pick Categories

What every MLB label means

★ BEST BET
HIGH CONVICTION · 1-2 PER DAY

The strongest signal we generate. Our model sees a massive edge over the book. Rare but highly accurate.

Expected: highest ROI, smallest volume
◆ UNDERVALUED
THE BOOK IS UNDERPRICING THIS TEAM · 5-6 PER DAY

Our model sees value the market is missing. Bet these as a group over time — some will lose, but the math works in your favor across the full card.

Expected: positive EV across the card
↻ SECOND OPINION
LOW-EDGE PICKS AGAINST THE MARKET

A smaller edge where our model disagrees with the market on a non-pick'em line. A full-season review found it was one of our most profitable tiers, so it's a recommended play again. Bet these as a group rather than one at a time.

Status: recommended · bet as a group
— NO PLAY
FILTERED OUT

The book has this one right. There's no edge worth betting. We skip these entirely.

Recommendation: Pass
NBA Pick Categories

What every NBA label means

NBA picks are categorized by spread edge — the gap between our calculated true line and the Vegas spread. Away underdogs are excluded because our data shows they consistently lose money regardless of edge size.

✔ CONFIRMED
HIGHEST CONVICTION

Our model sees a significant gap between our true line and the Vegas spread. The strongest signal in our NBA model — rare but highly accurate.

Expected: highest edge, strongest signal
⇆ SECOND OPINION
MODEL DISAGREES WITH VEGAS ON THE FAVORITE

Our model thinks the other team should be favored. When we disagree with Vegas on who wins, that's a contrarian signal worth watching.

Expected: high variance, contrarian value
— NO FINDING
NO MEANINGFUL EDGE

No meaningful edge detected, or the pick is an away underdog (filtered out). We show you these too — because knowing when NOT to bet is just as important.

Recommendation: Pass
Ready to see where the book got it wrong?

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