MLB Model Results: Full Transparency

Every tout service on the internet advertises a win rate. “62% winners!” “Best record in the industry!” But ask to see the actual picks — timestamped, with odds, including the losses — and most go quiet.

We built Dr. TrueLine on the opposite principle. Every pick the model makes is logged before the game starts. Every result is published — wins, losses, the edge we calculated, and the exact odds. You can verify every claim we make because the data is right there on the scoreboard.

Why transparency matters in sports betting

The sports betting analytics space has a credibility problem. Services selectively report wins, bury losses, reset their records every month, or count “pushes” in their favor. Some post picks after the game starts. Some simply lie.

This makes it impossible for a bettor to evaluate whether a service actually has an edge or just has good marketing. Without a verifiable, timestamped record of every pick including the ones that lost, you're taking someone's word for it.

We think that's unacceptable. If a model works, the data should speak for itself. If it doesn't work, hiding the results won't fix it.

How our scoreboard works

Every pick Dr. TrueLine makes is recorded in our database before the game begins. The pick includes the team, the moneyline odds, the edge percentage, and the tier classification (Best Bet, Undervalued, Second Opinion, or No Play). After the game ends, the result is logged automatically — win, loss, and exact P&L based on $100 flat moneyline risk.

The scoreboard displays:

Overall ROI across our recommended picks. This is the headline number — it tells you whether the model is making money.

Tier-specific ROI for Best Bets, Undervalued picks, and Second Opinion picks separately. This lets you see which tier is performing and whether the tier system itself adds value. Second Opinion is our newest tier — it surfaces games where the market is overconfident on a fair matchup — and we track its results on the scoreboard alongside the other tiers as the sample grows.

No Play tracking. We even show the results of games we told you NOT to bet. When No Play games consistently lose money (they do — currently -6.4% ROI), it validates the filter. The picks we exclude are net losers, which means the filter is doing its job.

Time period filters. You can view All Time or Last 30 Days. A small sample warning appears when a time period has fewer than 20 games — because short-term results in sports betting are noise, not signal.

What the numbers actually mean

Let's talk about what our current numbers say and don't say.

Our MLB model shows double-digit ROI across our included picks. Best Bets consistently outperform the overall average.

What this means: the model has a real, demonstrated edge over the sportsbooks on the games it recommends. The edge threshold filter is working — included picks are profitable, excluded picks (No Play) are losing money.

What this doesn't mean: guaranteed future results. Our sample is meaningful and growing every day, but any honest analyst will tell you that variance exists and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. We're confident the methodology is sound — the edge comes from systematic analysis of multiple variable categories, not luck. We say that in our disclaimers because we mean it.

Why we show the losses

Our win rate on included picks is just over half. That's barely above a coin flip. If we were a traditional tout service, we'd never advertise that number. We'd cherry-pick the Best Bets and market those.

But we show everything because the win rate doesn't tell the story. Our ROI is strongly positive on a modest win rate because the model finds games where the sportsbook has mispriced the line. The losses are part of the strategy. Hiding them would misrepresent how the model works.

This is also why we track No Play results. It would be easy to simply not show those games. But showing that No Play games lose money collectively proves the filter has value. The model isn't just picking winners — it's identifying which games to skip, and the skipped games are in fact losers.

How to use the scoreboard

If you're evaluating Dr. TrueLine, here's what to look at:

Look at All Time ROI first. This is the most stable number. Short-term filters (7 days, 30 days) are noisy — a few bad beats can swing the numbers wildly on small samples.

Compare included vs No Play. If included picks are profitable and No Play picks are losing money, the filter is adding value. If both were performing similarly, the filter would be pointless.

Check the game count. ROI on 10 games means nothing. ROI on hundreds of games is more meaningful. ROI on 500+ games is where real confidence begins. We're building toward that — transparently, one game at a time.

Don't expect perfection. We will have losing weeks. We will have losing streaks. What matters is whether the methodology produces positive ROI over hundreds of games. Professional bettors think in seasons, not days.

See for yourself

The scoreboard is fully public — you don't need an account to see it. Browse the results, check the ROI by tier, look at individual games. Everything is there because we have nothing to hide.