What Is a Prop Bet?
A prop bet is any wager that isn't on the final result of the game. Instead of the moneyline, spread, or total, you're betting on a narrower question: will this player go over 24.5 points? Will there be a run in the first inning?
Types of props
The most popular — points, rebounds, strikeouts, passing yards. Numerous and lower-limit, so the lines can be soft.
Events within the game — first team to score, the exact margin, a run in the first inning.
The coin toss, the anthem length. Pure entertainment — best treated that way.
Why props can be soft
Books put their sharpest pricing on the big markets. Player props are numerous, lower-limit, and harder to price perfectly, so the lines can be softer — which is exactly where a data-driven edge can live. It's the same hunt as the rest of the market: find the mispriced line.
How to approach props
Treat a prop like any other bet: estimate the real probability, compare it to the price's implied probability, and bet only when you're getting the better number. Props reward research into usage, matchups, and pace — but the same discipline of expected value still rules. Loose lines cut both ways.