How Often Do Sportsbooks Misprice MLB Lines?
Historical data. Captured 2026-07-02 through 2026-10-10. The scanner that gathered it is now retired.
How we measured this
During the 2026 MLB season, every 10 minutes from 9 AM to 11 PM ET, our scanner pulled moneyline, run line, and totals prices from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Caesars and Hard Rock Bet, plus Pinnacle. We stripped the vig from Pinnacle's two-way price to get a fair probability for each side, then flagged any retail price whose expected value against that fair probability was +2% or better. For each flag we recorded the timestamp, book, price, and edge, and kept watching until the book corrected the line. Prices were compared only at identical lines for spreads and totals, so a "better price" was never an artifact of a different number. The scanner is retired; the table below is the full record it left behind.
How fast did books fix mistakes?
The median mispriced line lasted 19 minutes. 60% were corrected within 30 minutes (n=102). These windows were short by design: once sharp money or the book's own risk desk noticed, the price snapped back to market. While the scanner ran, speed was the whole game.
Which books and markets misprice most?
Every mispricing captured from 2026-07-02 through 2026-10-10, broken down by sportsbook and by market type. The scanner is retired, so this table is fixed rather than still growing.
| Sportsbook | Mispricings captured |
|---|---|
| BetRivers | 48 |
| FanDuel | 32 |
| DraftKings | 9 |
| BetMGM | 7 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6 |
Mispricings of 2%+ EV vs Pinnacle no-vig fair value, 2026-07-02 through 2026-10-10.
| Market | Mispricings captured |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | 38 |
| Run line | 37 |
| Total (over/under) | 27 |
MLB markets scanned: moneyline, run line, and totals.
Did these edges win?
In total, the flagged bets finished 31-41 for −$112 at $100 flat stakes (-1.6% ROI).
Frequently asked questions
Why compare against Pinnacle?
Pinnacle is the sharpest sportsbook in the world: it posts the lowest vig, takes the largest limits, and welcomes winning bettors instead of banning them, so its prices absorb the most informed money. Stripping the vig from Pinnacle's two-way price is the industry-standard way to estimate a bet's fair probability.
Why do retail sportsbooks misprice lines?
Retail books react slower to news and sharp money (steam), price some markets for marketing appeal rather than accuracy, and spread their attention across thousands of simultaneous markets. Brief mispricings are the inevitable result — which is why they exist at all, and why they get corrected quickly once noticed.
Can I bet these mispriced lines?
While the scanner ran, yes, for as long as they lasted: the edges were real prices at real US sportsbooks, but most got corrected within minutes to hours. The scanner is now retired, so Dr. TrueLine no longer sends live mispricing alerts. This page keeps the historical record public.