Break-Even Calculator
The break-even win rate is the share of bets you must win at this price just to come out even. Win more often than that and you profit; win less and you lose — no matter how the individual games feel.
Why the break-even rate is the number that matters
Every price comes with a hidden threshold: the win rate you must hit just to stay even. At -110 it is about 52.4%. At -200 it jumps to 66.7%. Win exactly that often and you make nothing; the gap above it is your profit, and the gap below it is your loss.
This is why a win-loss record tells you almost nothing on its own. A 55% bettor is crushing it at -110 and bleeding money at -160. The record only has meaning next to the price — the exact point behind the idea that win rate doesn't matter nearly as much as bettors think.
Beating the break-even line consistently is the definition of an edge. Our model finds it by pricing every game and betting only when the true line says the real win rate is higher than the price requires.
Frequently asked questions
What is a break-even win rate?
It is the percentage of bets you must win at a given price just to come out even. At standard -110 odds it is about 52.4% — so you have to win more than 52.4% of your -110 bets to make money.
How do you calculate it?
The break-even win rate equals the implied probability of the odds. For negative odds it is the odds divided by the odds plus 100; for positive odds it is 100 divided by the odds plus 100. The bigger the favorite, the higher the win rate you need.
Why does this matter more than my record?
Because a win rate only means something next to the price you got it at. A 55% record is great at -110 and a loser at -150. Break-even is the line that tells you which one you are on — which is why win rate alone is the wrong metric.